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Shiny Happy People – The science of Optimism and Decision Making

Last week we explored the difference between promotional and prevention motivation and how this might impact messaging. This week the debate continues as neuroscientist Tali Sharot reveals the latest findings on how we digest information. On this morning’s BBC Radio 4’s woman’s hour she explained that human beings are actually hard wired to be optimistic. So what does that mean to us as individuals and how does that impact on how we communicate with one another?


As is often the case, this discovery was made accidently when Sharot was trying to examine whether the same part of the brain responsible for remembering the past was also responsible for imagining the future. When asked to picture future events, the test audience had an overwhelming bias towards the positive, automatically assuming the best possibly scenario, be it that their plane journey would be smooth or a haircut fantastic.  It transpired that approximately 80% of people in the western world are innately positive, whereas only 20% will expect a negative outcome to future events.  The majority of people, therefore, are fuelled and enticed by what’s to gain, rather than what’s at risk.

Who are we kidding?

So we assume the best for us as individuals and, at least in this part of our brain, put ourselves above the rule (“That happens to others, but that will never happen to me”). So much so, that our brain will trick us into believing we’ll live to be 100 years old and live a life of health and happiness, even when our own life experience and statistics should teach us better. Tali Sharot gives the example of a couple about to get married predicting a 0% chance that they’ll one day get a divorce, even though the statistic in reality lies at about 50% in the western world. Optimism is a surviving mechanism, perhaps a tool that allows us to take risks that as rational human beings we would not take if it weren’t for the belief that we’ll be fine, against the odds.

The stubborn optimist – how to reach people

After being presented with the real statistic, the test audience was then again asked to make the personal prediction. Interestingly, the facts did alter their belief, but only when the real statistic was better, more positive, than what they had initially predicted. Data that was negative (i.e. a 30% chance in getting cancer as opposed to a predicted 10%) was perpetually ignored. We therefore do not relate bad news to ourselves and we don’t learn from negative information.  This has implications on how we communicate. If we are aware of our mental blind spots, we can ensure to craft our messages in such a way that will stick as opposed to being ignored and filed in the “not relevant to me” bin. It’s important to note that factors such as age and cultural background will also have an impact on our optimism (at least on how conscious we are of it). As a conscious optimist, it’s reassuring to know that a positive message will have a larger impact than a negative one – now go and have yourself a nice, oblivious day!

Smiling in the face of reality – Youtube

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